4 Possible Scenarios Of 2015 Elections
To forecast Nigeria’s post-election political stability Stratfor experts have predicted four possible scenarios.
Stratfor is a geopolitical intelligence firm that provides strategic analysis and forecasting to individuals and organizations around the world. By placing global events in a geopolitical framework, they help customers anticipate opportunities and better understand international developments.
The experts say that Jonathan has now not only served out the presidencies intended for the North-West region for the 2007-2011 and 2011-2015 terms, but his supporters now argue he is eligible for another term since he was elected president only once, in 2011.
The analysts’ point is that Jonathan and his Niger Delta constituency have already usurped the presidency, and are threatening to upend the zoning agreement by seeking another four-year term. That is why dissatisfaction with Jonathan means the 2015 national elections are the first time Nigeria has a real possibility of a peaceful democratic transition from one party to another. According to the Stratfor, there are four plausible electoral outcomes.
1. An Uncontested Jonathan Re-election
Stratfor states that Jonathan and the PDP could manage to overcome criticism from the APC over perceptions of his threatening the zoning agreement and poor handling of the economy. In this case the new Jonathan’s government would have to enact economic austerity so long as crude oil revenues are low. Furthermore counterinsurgency operations against Boko Haram would receive modest political support insufficient to defeat the militant group entirely. This scenario would result in essentially a status quo policy outcome.
“Moving forward, were Jonathan to be handily re-elected but the National Assembly receive a divided vote, he would face difficulties in passing legislation, particularly on hot-button issues such as fuel subsidies. An austere spending plan would make Jonathan unpopular before too long. One potential result from an undisputed Jonathan win, however, would be a PDP initiative to try to draw APC members back. Success is not guaranteed, but the Jonathan administration’s access to state resources would provide incentive,” the organisation explains.
2. A Disputed Jonathan Re-election
In this scenario, Jonathan’s win is tight enough raise doubts about its validity, meaning he would have to govern in the face of considerable political opposition.The research notes that combined with an underperforming economy and the Boko Haram insurgency, Jonathan might not manage to complete a full four-year term, perhaps resigning or facing constitutional or extra-constitutional removal from office.
Stratfor supposes that because of insecurity as a result of the Boko Haram insurgency, considerable parts of northeastern Nigeria might be unable to vote. Indeed, Stratfor observers report that the APC fears a meaningful number of pro-APC voters will be disenfranchised because of Boko Haram fighting. While the Nigerian military has secured a number of urban areas in northeastern Nigeria previously controlled by Boko Haram, it is unclear whether conditions will be ready to hold elections in this region. And even if voting does occur, the registration process ahead of the elections has already been significantly disrupted.
“The confrontation between the opposition and the Jonathan administration and its supporters would rise to levels unseen since 1999 and could even become violent. Though civil war would be unlikely, political gridlock would be.How long Jonathan remains in office in such circumstances would probably depend on how the economy performs, which in turn depends on external factors, particularly the price of oil, and on how well the counterinsurgency campaign against Boko Haram goes. The counterinsurgency campaign has received improved political and military support in the final weeks leading up to the national elections. Whether sustaining a counterinsurgency will be a priority for Jonathan once the pressure of winning re-election is off, however, is unclear”.
3. A Disputed Buhari Victory
In this plausible scenario, Stratfor describes, northern Nigeria will be pleased with the outcome, but concerns would arise regarding stability in the oil-producing Niger Delta region. The experts think that while Buhari can expect significant voter support in northern Nigeria and in the South-West region, Jonathan has supporters in pockets throughout Nigeria, though his base is in the South-South and South-East. A Buhari victory would raise fears in the delta that could lead to violence if Jonathan supporters believed Buhari won via fraud.
“Moreover, Jonathan supporters, especially in the delta region, would be ready to rebel if the region saw its patronage appointments curtailed. With scarce government resources to meet the demands of the southwest and the north, Buhari would be pressed to placate Niger Delta militants, who have become accustomed to influence in Abuja. In view of this risk, Buhari made Rivers state Gov. Rotimi Amaechi, the leader of Nigeria’s largest oil and natural gas producing state, to be his campaign manager. Buhari would most likely give Amaechi a senior Cabinet position, a perch from which he could seek to pacify Niger Delta militants. Placating the South-South region would require similar appointments to government positions,” the forecast shows.
4. An Uncontested Buhari Election
In this unlikely scenario, according to the analytical institution, Buhari would concentrate on reining in the Boko Haram insurgency, implement spending discipline and curtail the unaccounted spending that Cabinet ministers and government officials enjoyed under Jonathan.
The authors predict that Buhari would also incorporate Niger Delta interests into his government and likely assign Amaechi to a Cabinet position, though the economy and security would be higher priorities.
They forecast Jonathan meanwhile would continue to find support. He would get support from his home South-South region, from those who benefited financially from his government, and from other ethnic groups who oppose Buhari, who is often seen as the sort of Hausa-Fulani military autocrat.
Stratfor is a geopolitical intelligence firm that provides strategic analysis and forecasting to individuals and organizations around the world. By placing global events in a geopolitical framework, they help customers anticipate opportunities and better understand international developments.
The experts say that Jonathan has now not only served out the presidencies intended for the North-West region for the 2007-2011 and 2011-2015 terms, but his supporters now argue he is eligible for another term since he was elected president only once, in 2011.
The analysts’ point is that Jonathan and his Niger Delta constituency have already usurped the presidency, and are threatening to upend the zoning agreement by seeking another four-year term. That is why dissatisfaction with Jonathan means the 2015 national elections are the first time Nigeria has a real possibility of a peaceful democratic transition from one party to another. According to the Stratfor, there are four plausible electoral outcomes.
1. An Uncontested Jonathan Re-election
Stratfor states that Jonathan and the PDP could manage to overcome criticism from the APC over perceptions of his threatening the zoning agreement and poor handling of the economy. In this case the new Jonathan’s government would have to enact economic austerity so long as crude oil revenues are low. Furthermore counterinsurgency operations against Boko Haram would receive modest political support insufficient to defeat the militant group entirely. This scenario would result in essentially a status quo policy outcome.
“Moving forward, were Jonathan to be handily re-elected but the National Assembly receive a divided vote, he would face difficulties in passing legislation, particularly on hot-button issues such as fuel subsidies. An austere spending plan would make Jonathan unpopular before too long. One potential result from an undisputed Jonathan win, however, would be a PDP initiative to try to draw APC members back. Success is not guaranteed, but the Jonathan administration’s access to state resources would provide incentive,” the organisation explains.
2. A Disputed Jonathan Re-election
In this scenario, Jonathan’s win is tight enough raise doubts about its validity, meaning he would have to govern in the face of considerable political opposition.The research notes that combined with an underperforming economy and the Boko Haram insurgency, Jonathan might not manage to complete a full four-year term, perhaps resigning or facing constitutional or extra-constitutional removal from office.
Stratfor supposes that because of insecurity as a result of the Boko Haram insurgency, considerable parts of northeastern Nigeria might be unable to vote. Indeed, Stratfor observers report that the APC fears a meaningful number of pro-APC voters will be disenfranchised because of Boko Haram fighting. While the Nigerian military has secured a number of urban areas in northeastern Nigeria previously controlled by Boko Haram, it is unclear whether conditions will be ready to hold elections in this region. And even if voting does occur, the registration process ahead of the elections has already been significantly disrupted.
“The confrontation between the opposition and the Jonathan administration and its supporters would rise to levels unseen since 1999 and could even become violent. Though civil war would be unlikely, political gridlock would be.How long Jonathan remains in office in such circumstances would probably depend on how the economy performs, which in turn depends on external factors, particularly the price of oil, and on how well the counterinsurgency campaign against Boko Haram goes. The counterinsurgency campaign has received improved political and military support in the final weeks leading up to the national elections. Whether sustaining a counterinsurgency will be a priority for Jonathan once the pressure of winning re-election is off, however, is unclear”.
3. A Disputed Buhari Victory
In this plausible scenario, Stratfor describes, northern Nigeria will be pleased with the outcome, but concerns would arise regarding stability in the oil-producing Niger Delta region. The experts think that while Buhari can expect significant voter support in northern Nigeria and in the South-West region, Jonathan has supporters in pockets throughout Nigeria, though his base is in the South-South and South-East. A Buhari victory would raise fears in the delta that could lead to violence if Jonathan supporters believed Buhari won via fraud.
“Moreover, Jonathan supporters, especially in the delta region, would be ready to rebel if the region saw its patronage appointments curtailed. With scarce government resources to meet the demands of the southwest and the north, Buhari would be pressed to placate Niger Delta militants, who have become accustomed to influence in Abuja. In view of this risk, Buhari made Rivers state Gov. Rotimi Amaechi, the leader of Nigeria’s largest oil and natural gas producing state, to be his campaign manager. Buhari would most likely give Amaechi a senior Cabinet position, a perch from which he could seek to pacify Niger Delta militants. Placating the South-South region would require similar appointments to government positions,” the forecast shows.
4. An Uncontested Buhari Election
In this unlikely scenario, according to the analytical institution, Buhari would concentrate on reining in the Boko Haram insurgency, implement spending discipline and curtail the unaccounted spending that Cabinet ministers and government officials enjoyed under Jonathan.
The authors predict that Buhari would also incorporate Niger Delta interests into his government and likely assign Amaechi to a Cabinet position, though the economy and security would be higher priorities.
They forecast Jonathan meanwhile would continue to find support. He would get support from his home South-South region, from those who benefited financially from his government, and from other ethnic groups who oppose Buhari, who is often seen as the sort of Hausa-Fulani military autocrat.
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